New poll finds 69% of Canadians want Ottawa to hold firm in CUSMA negotiations
Political strategist Marcel Wieder of Aurora Stategy Global says the data gives Canadian negotiators a mandate to
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Toronto, Ontario, July 24, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — 
Summary
- A new Abacus Data poll finds that 69% of Canadians want their federal government to hold firm in CUSMA negotiations, even if prolonged uncertainty is the price.
- Only 20% favor rushing to a quick compromise. Political strategist Marcel Wieder, president and chief advocate of Aurora Strategy Global, says the data gives Ottawa a clear mandate to prioritize Canadian sovereignty over speed and to negotiate from a position of strength during the 2026 joint review.
Media Availability:
Aurora Strategy Global’s Marcel Wieder is available for comment on this ongoing story.
Key Takeaways
- Nearly seven in 10 Canadians back a tough CUSMA stance, even if talks take longer.
- Just 20% want Ottawa to compromise quickly to secure a faster deal.
- More than half of respondents say Canada should reduce its reliance on the U.S. by expanding trade elsewhere.
- Fifty-five percent believe the end of CUSMA would make no difference or could be beneficial for Canada; only 45% see it as a bad outcome (the poll was conducted before the two latest U.S. tariff announcements in July and signals a meaningful shift in Canadian public opinion toward strategic uncertainty).
- Wieder notes that Canada has signed approximately 20 new international agreements to diversify trade away from the United States.
TORONTO — A new survey from Abacus Data finds nearly seven in 10 Canadians want the federal government to hold firm in CUSMA negotiations, even if the process takes longer and prolongs economic uncertainty. The findings also show that just 20% of Canadians favor quick compromises to reach an agreement sooner. The results are landing as Washington imposed fresh 10% tariffs on Canada and roughly 60 other countries July 23 — its second escalation against Canada in a week — citing forced labor in supply chains.
The poll, conducted before the latest U.S. tariff announcements in July, reveals a significant shift in Canadian public opinion. For decades, Canadians prioritized stability in trade relations with the United States. Today, a growing majority appears willing to accept short-term uncertainty in exchange for long-term economic resilience and national sovereignty.
What the Abacus Data research found
- Nearly seven in 10 (69%) of Canadians say Ottawa should hold firm in CUSMA negotiations, even if uncertainty lasts longer.
- Only 20% prefer compromises to reach an agreement sooner.
- More than half of respondents believe Canada’s long-term priority should be reducing reliance on the U.S. by expanding trade elsewhere.
- Only 45% view the end of CUSMA as a bad outcome for Canada, while 55% say it would either make no difference or could be beneficial.
Marcel Wieder’s analysis of the data
The mandate: hold firm, don’t rush
“This research confirms what we are seeing on the ground: Canadians are done with speed for speed’s sake,” said Wieder. “I’m outraged by this, and now it’s clear the public is giving Ottawa a clear mandate to keep its elbows up,” he added.
What ‘elbows up’ means
“Elbows up” is a phrase coined by Prime Minister Carney during the election that comes from hockey, when players would go into the boards with elbows up to take out opponents. The term was often used to describe the play of hockey great Gordie Howe, whose name now graces the new international bridge connecting Windsor and Detroit. The phrase has since been adopted as the shorthand Canadians use when referring to negotiations with the Trump administration.
The goal is not just any deal — it is a deal that protects Canadian sovereignty and economic independence. If that takes longer, Canadians have clearly signaled they are prepared for the wait.
Why the poll emboldens Canada’s negotiators
Wieder, a veteran political strategist who has advised on federal and provincial campaigns, said the poll results should embolden Canadian negotiators heading into the 2026 CUSMA joint review. He noted that the consensus crosses partisan lines and reflects a broader rethinking of Canada’s trade posture in an era of U.S. protectionism.
“For years, the political calculus was that Canadians would panic at the first sign of trade friction with Washington,” Wieder noted. “This data shows the opposite. The country is becoming more comfortable with strategic uncertainty, and that changes everything about how Ottawa should approach the negotiations. Rather than rushing to close a deal, the government has public backing to negotiate from a position of strength.”
Canada is diversifying trade — and CUSMA is ‘worth defending’
Wieder also pointed out that the Canadian government has signed approximately 20 new international agreements to diversify its trading relationships beyond the United States.
“Canadians are looking and finding willing trade partners as the United States becomes more isolationist under this administration,” he said. “Even the latest tariff round exempts CUSMA-compliant goods, which tells you the agreement is worth defending, not discarding — and worth taking the time to get right.”
A dangerous precedent for the rules-based order
Wieder continued: “It also violates the USMCA and sends a signal around the world that this administration does not honor treaties and will tear one up when it suits them. I believe Washington is using Canada as an example: do as we say, or we force you into submission. American business interests are now at the center of their foreign policy, using presidential fiat to reshape the economic policies of other nations to suit their own. That is destroying the rules-based order in place since World War II and could push us into a global recession. If you sign a deal with the U.S. and then find out that they don’t like it and suddenly apply tariffs, why would you sign it in the first place?”
Are the new tariffs punitive?
A Toronto Star analysis found nearly 15% of the goods on the U.S. tariff list have not been exported from Canada in the past two years — evidence, Wieder said, that the measures are punitive rather than trade-driven. On the economic impact of the latest tariffs, Wieder said Americans should expect to pay higher prices for goods from Canada.
“While Canadians will find some pain, it appears that they are willing to endure that in the short term. Canadian resolve is strong at this point,” he said. “It was noted by President Trump that only China and Canada applied retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. after he imposed them on both countries. Both countries refused to be bullied.”
Canada is ready for a prolonged standoff
Wieder added that Canada is prepared for a prolonged standoff. “Learning from Iran, no friend of Canada, playing the long game pays off. Iran has been able to resist punishing American blows and is still standing. Canada can withstand the tariffs, and if need be, can impose crippling tariffs on energy, potash and other vital areas that are critical to the American economy.”
Frequently Asked Questions
What is CUSMA?
CUSMA, also known as the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (USMCA), is the trilateral trade agreement that replaced NAFTA in 2020. It governs trade between Canada, the United States and Mexico and is currently undergoing a scheduled joint review in 2026.
What did the latest Abacus Data poll find?
The poll found that 69% of Canadians want Ottawa to hold firm in CUSMA negotiations, even if it means living with uncertainty longer. Just 20% want quick compromises. More than half believe Canada should prioritize reducing U.S. trade reliance by expanding markets elsewhere. The survey was conducted before the latest U.S. tariff announcements in July.
Who conducted the poll?
The research was conducted by Abacus Data, a Canadian polling and market research firm, and published by David Coletto, the firm’s chair and CEO and a professor at Carleton University.
Who is Marcel Wieder?
Marcel Wieder is president and chief advocate of Aurora Strategy Global, a public affairs and government relations firm based in Toronto. He is a 40-year veteran of Canadian political strategy and a frequent media commentator on CTV, CBC, Global, CP24, TVO, the Toronto Star and the Globe & Mail. He has directed major independent political campaigns and is recognized with multiple Pollie, Reed, Telly and Summit awards.
Why does this poll matter for the 2026 CUSMA review?
The poll suggests Canadian negotiators have broad public support to take a hard line in the 2026 joint review rather than rushing to preserve the agreement at any cost. It also indicates that a majority of Canadians may already be prepared for a post-CUSMA trade environment, which could change how political leaders calculate the risks of walking away from a weak deal.
Do the latest U.S. tariffs violate the USMCA agreement?
Wieder argues that the latest tariffs violate the USMCA and send a signal around the world that the U.S. administration does not honor treaties. “If you sign a deal with the U.S. and then find out that they don’t like it and suddenly apply tariffs, why would you sign it in the first place?” he said. He called it a dangerous precedent in international trade, though CUSMA-compliant goods stay exempt.
What does “keep its elbows up” mean?
“Elbows up” is a phrase coined by Prime Minister Mark Carney during the election to describe an assertive, defensive negotiating posture that protects Canadian interests. It is used in hockey when players would go into the boards with “elbows up” to take out opponents. It was most notably associated with Gordie Howe, “Mr. Hockey,” who was notorious for taking out opposing players in the corner. It has since been adopted as the phrase Canadians use when referring to negotiations with the Trump administration. Wieder uses it to signal that Ottawa should not be pushed into concessions simply to avoid conflict with Washington. In an interesting twist, Howe’s name also graces the new international bridge connecting Windsor and Detroit.
How has Canadian opinion on trade changed?
According to this poll, Canadians are moving away from a decades-long preference for stability at all costs and are becoming more comfortable with strategic uncertainty if it leads to greater economic sovereignty and long-term resilience.
Where can I read the full poll?
The full Abacus Data report is here: “Canadians Want a Tough Negotiating Stance on CUSMA, Even if It Takes Longer.”
About Aurora Strategy Global
Aurora Strategy Global is a public affairs and government relations firm that helps clients navigate complex political and regulatory environments. The firm combines deep policy expertise with strategic communications to deliver messages to the right audience at the right time.
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